I think we can do the math
74 in Walk with Me (says Rowan to Andrea)
-3 killed in Hounded (Tim, Crowley, Gargulio)
-7 in Made to Suffer (Hailey, Warren... says the Governor)
-1 in Home (the guy in the watchtower)
-7 in This Sorrowful Life (by Merle)
-22 in Welcome to the Tombs, killed by the Governor
-1 in..., killed by Carl
... it makes: 74-41 = 33 Survivors of Woodbury, plus Tyreese and Sasha
You can't count seven in Made to Suffer because the Governor is lying. He's counting the three Michonne took out in that number. I went through the wiki counting up all the deaths. I posted it on another thread but it came down to close to what you have.
Rewatching the season I've consistently seen Long Hair guy and the guy he died with (the first two Merle gunned down that were eaten by walkers) plus a good half of the massacre victims. I haven't paid attention to kids, though.
Oh, and in Welcome to the Tombs
there is a woman with a blanket covering her in front as if she's nursing a child. Plus the toddler we see going into the Prison (carried by Mom) is in that scene, too. Didn't see an infant in the Prison scene at the end.
Did an extensive scan of the last episode looking for Noah, he wasn't to be found. There is a guy wearing a baseball cap backwards like Noah, but this is a guy mid to late twenties. We can eliminate Noah from the massacre or Karen would have said something.
Not everyone needed to come back to the prison on the bus. Some may have stayed behind to pack up supplies. I like to think that the most likely scenario happens even if we don't see it rather than just say 'lazy writing' or 'wft'? I'd rather not insult my own intelligence