[BigEd]

mogwai, on 09 June 2012 - 03:54 AM, said:

Some university actually did a study on the topic of whether or not a zombie outbreak could destroy society. Their finding (based on math) was that even the slow moving zombies would topple society unless effectively dealt with as soon as it starts..

Which we would do.. assuming we have that opportunity. The full report is available online and easy to find

Yep, here it is:

Day: 1 -		   1 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 2 -		   5 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 3 -		  14 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 4 -		  38 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 5 -		  96 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 6 -		 243 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 7 -		 609 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 8 -		1524 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 9 -		3813 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 10 -		9535 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 11 -	   23840 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 12 -	   59603 infected.  0.001%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 13 -	  149010 infected.  0.002%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 14 -	  372528 infected.  0.005%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 15 -	  931321 infected.  0.014%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 16 -	 2328305 infected.  0.034%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 17 -	 5820765 infected.  0.085%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 18 -	14551914 infected.  0.213%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 19 -	36379787 infected.  0.532%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 20 -	90949469 infected.  1.330%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 21 -   227373674 infected.  3.324%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 22 -   568434187 infected.  8.310%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 23 -  1421085470 infected. 20.775%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 24 -  3552713677 infected. 51.936%   Attack success: 50.0%

Half of the worlds population infected after 24 days...


The Flaw in the model is the living learn and adapt.

News travels fast and people communicate, cell phones, texting, twitter, internet, and forums. As people bug in/out, arm, and defend themselves the attack success rate would drop.

See how quickly the numbers change from static success rate.

Day: 1 -		   1 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 50.0%
Day: 2 -		   5 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 49.8%
Day: 3 -		  14 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 49.4%
Day: 4 -		  34 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 48.8%
Day: 5 -		  78 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 48.0%
Day: 6 -		 167 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 47.0%
Day: 7 -		 329 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 45.8%
Day: 8 -		 589 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 44.4%
Day: 9 -		 940 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 42.8%
Day: 10 -		1309 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 41.0%
Day: 11 -		1549 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 39.0%
Day: 12 -		1504 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 36.8%
Day: 13 -		1152 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 34.4%
Day: 14 -		 658 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 31.8%
Day: 15 -		 262 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 29.0%
Day: 16 -		  65 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 26.0%
Day: 17 -		   7 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 22.8%
Day: 18 -		  -1 infected.  0.000%   Attack success: 19.4%

[Trillian]

IcDeep, on 04 June 2012 - 02:01 PM, said:

Look at the movie Contagion for how this could happen, it's not the best movie but it does give you a good grasp of the chain of contact and how a virus can spread easily from 1 person to millions in the amount of time it would take for it to become known that there is a issue, and by that time it's to late.

BigEd, on 04 June 2012 - 10:54 PM, said:

Have not seen it.

Contagion is not a great film, but it does do a nice job of showing how a new virus can spread and wreak havoc.  I think the virus in Contagion is so dangerous because initially, the victim just thinks they have a bad cold.  Most people keep functioning with a cold.  They go to work because they don't want to go unpaid or use a day off for a minor illness, which means that they keep infecting people until they are way too sick to function.

[Texaxile]

Hi,

I don't wanna requote "Sappers" excellent points, but merely echo them. We all know a real zombie (brainless, shuffling maggot sacks) would be mown down with complete impunity by the Authorities and a few thousand rounds of well placed ammunition.

A "rage" type virus, while technically improbable is still actually theoretically possible. The basic rules of viral infection being that there are no current known virii that can change a persons physiology to such an extent in such a short (seconds / minutes) space of time. However, like many of us are aware, weaponised bio agents can kill in seconds, and it would come as no real surprise if a genetically engineered agent has been or is in development which can exhibit the same symptoms on people. Bottom line is, people like us just don't know, we can only speculate. Military technology is way, way ahead of the stuff civvies see. I mean, they even had night vision technology at the end of WW2. I can recall being on an offshore Fast Patrol Boat in Oman in 1975 which was equipped with high powered laser sighting / rangefinding gear and Exocet launchers.

A breakdown of society can happen much more easily. I read somewhere that we're only 3 square meals away from Anarchy. Just think, if you lived in Syria , Libya or even Bahrain, lessons learned here would ,by now, be paying dividends.

Like BWR said, it's fun ,but serious fun. I love this forum because people here are friendly, non judgemental and honest. However, we are all aware that if the SHTF maybe we would be able to get ahead a bit.

I truly believe that mother nature has her way of balancing out the Earth. After all, it's hers, we're merely tenants. 7 billion people may get her a bit upset, and she might do something to redress the balance. I just hope to be in her good books when it all gets sorted out.

Edited by Texaxile, 09 June 2012 - 09:07 PM.

[BigEd]

Texaxile, on 09 June 2012 - 09:06 PM, said:

A breakdown of society can happen much more easily. I read somewhere that we're only 3 square meals away from Anarchy. Just think, if you lived in Syria , Libya or even Bahrain, lessons learned here would ,by now, be paying dividends.

I believe it would take alot for people to get to a stage of anarchy.

I guess you have to ask yourself some questions:

Do I know my neighbors?
Am I a part of a community?
Would you help out an elder who lives alone?
Do I know the parents of my kids friends?

Having lived through only MINOR disasters: Microburst in 2010, Hurricane Irene, and the Halloween snow storm. Power out for weeks, roads closed, businesses and schools closed. Couple gas stations sold out and closed.
I noticed that people helped out one another more, people volunteered and offered help above the norm. There was no panic, no looting, no mayhem.

When folks are faced with adversity the majority would come out to do the rite thing.

You live, you learn, you recover, and you move on. Make some friends along away.

[mysterywhiteboy]

Trippy, on 31 March 2012 - 04:16 PM, said:

A while back, when the ending of season 1 aired, my dad and I got in an intense discussion about the idea of America falling to a zombie apocolypse.

His argument was that the military wouldn't fall that fast. With the supplies that they have, and the weapons they could get their hands on, it wouldn't be likely. He said, and I quote, "Zombies couldn't take out a tank. That's just ridiculous."

Now, my response against his was that these zombies would never stop. Humans need resources to survive, and they also need rest. Zombies don't need any of that; they just keep coming. He still argued with me, saying that my thoughts were valid, but it just isn't likely.

Of course, our knowledge of the military is limited, especially mine, so most of this is based on opinion.

My question is to you all is, do you believe that the scenario The Walking Dead portrays is actually possible?

Another thought: If the infection started elsewhere, how could it come in contact with America? Our country wouldn't let that in, correct?

I think if a city got caught with its pants down like in the show it could happen, then imagine that all over the country. There is no handbook for a zombie outbreak so they could get caught off guard, but realistically they may be able to.defend.against an outbreak a little longer than they did in the show. As for the spreading, if a high value individual such as a politician or president got infected out of the country, they would possibly be rushed back to their bunker, Whitehouse etc and then the rest would exponentially cover itself. So many ways shit could go south pretty fast.
Sent from my LT18i using Xparent Blue Tapatalk 2

[sunonmars]

The problem is what Govt tells you before its too late, the Govt will tell you nothing until its too late for everyone because the world runs on insurance and futures, If it creates panic the world stops. You wont know about a killer virus until it gets you because you will not be told, you may hear snippets but Govt's will supress hoping to gain control, when they lose control its too late to tell anyone.

[sunonmars]

The problem with the Z virus is that it is spread it would seem with no symptoms exhibited initially , they are all infected, but how, if its airborne or waterborne which everyone uses daily then you are screwed because the effect is not noticed until the switch is flipped upon death. The virus infection spread quickly but until you get a first death and then reanimation, no one knows you have a problem, now if you have a virus that infects everyone within days and then subsequently a load of people die naturally every day, then accidents, then heart attacks from stress, then your Z populations ramps up very fast without knowing everyone is a ticking timebomb, its the perfect virus, hides until it triggers..

[mysterywhiteboy]

People are forgetting the Romero take on the zombie situation, "when there's no more room in hell, the dead will walk the earth". There have always been undercurrents with Romero's movies, usually true to the era, such as racism for example. There was never an explanation, the vagueness of it left it to the audience, more or less, and I think that's probably the best way because the zombie genre hasn't suffered because of it. Today it would most likely be a terrorist attack that was effective and went way too far.


Sent from my LT18i using Xparent Blue Tapatalk 2

[BigEd]

sunonmars, on 22 June 2012 - 11:21 AM, said:

The problem with the Z virus is that it is spread it would seem with no symptoms exhibited initially , they are all infected, but how, if its airborne or waterborne which everyone uses daily then you are screwed because the effect is not noticed until the switch is flipped upon death. The virus infection spread quickly but until you get a first death and then reanimation, no one knows you have a problem, now if you have a virus that infects everyone within days and then subsequently a load of people die naturally every day, then accidents, then heart attacks from stress, then your Z populations ramps up very fast without knowing everyone is a ticking timebomb, its the perfect virus, hides until it triggers..

If it is airborne or gets into the water, it is an end of days scenario for the human race.
The only problem is there is no such thing as a Z virus. Dead = Dead.

[Gingerwithasoul]

BigEd, on 14 April 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

However people were alerted about Hurricane Katrina 48 hours before the storm hit. News travels fast, people do not.

There are over 350 million firearms in America, and over a trillion rounds of ammo are produced each year. I personally only know of one neighbor who does not have a firearm. I'm sure if there was outbreak you would see an organized group of LEO's, Military, Civilians, zeroing and dropping walkers. I do not know anyone under the age of 75 who does not know how to spot a zombie or kill one.

Great ,you have a freakin arsenal at your disposal ,in the UK we would be forced to use hand gestures and harsh language .

[BigEd]

Gingerwithasoul, on 27 June 2012 - 09:04 AM, said:

Great ,you have a freakin arsenal at your disposal ,in the UK we would be forced to use hand gestures and harsh language .

Yeah, pretty much. If the virus was transmitted by bites alone, and there were no firearms, I would lay low and bug in. People who are ill prepared and venture outside place themseleves at greatest risk.
If the virus is spread by water or is airborne, the human race is screwed no matter how much guns and ammo you have.

[Trillian]

BigEd, on 14 April 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

There are over 350 million firearms in America, and over a trillion rounds of ammo are produced each year. I personally only know of one neighbor who does not have a firearm. I'm sure if there was outbreak you would see an organized group of LEO's, Military, Civilians, zeroing and dropping walkers. I do not know anyone under the age of 75 who does not know how to spot a zombie or kill one.

Gingerwithasoul, on 27 June 2012 - 09:04 AM, said:

Great ,you have a freakin arsenal at your disposal, in the UK we would be forced to use hand gestures and harsh language .

I don't know of a single person in my neighborhood who has a firearm.  I don't think that Americans are universally well-armed in spite of the number of weapons in the country.

In the ZA, I would be no better off than the Brits.  Well, except I have some pretty wicked garden tools.

[OMEN]

Found this on the webs:

It depends on where your live and where you talking about. In the South, say from New Mexico to Georgia, probably 90% of homes have at least one gun. Up in Montana, Utah, North and South Dakota, about 80% have a gun in their homes. In places like New York and north east, 35-40% own guns. Like I said, just depends on where your talking about. Several States allow concealed carry permits. Some states treat your vehicle like an extension of your home.


And these are people who report the fact they own guns/rifles

[TheMenqcE671]

i dont think a zombie apocolypse would be as bad as it is portrayed in the walking dead.  theres just too many guns in circulation among citizens that it would be hard for zombies to overtake large, populated areas. of course that just depends on where.
i do think, however, that some places can be overrun but to say the entire world, let alone the US, just doesnt seem realistic.  where im from id say theres a gun in about 1 out of every 3 houses and we have a population of about 175thousand and where theres 1 gun theres probably 2+ more so id say our chances are good

if the world were to end tho i would prefer a zombie apocolypse as opposed to disease, famine, war, alien invasion,  natural disasters, etc.  simply because we have more of a fighting chance

[Melquiades Estrada]

You have to keep in mind people dying overnight and surprise ! Also atleast in the first day the shock value.

[BigEd]

Melquiades Estrada, on 29 June 2012 - 07:32 AM, said:

You have to keep in mind people dying overnight and surprise ! Also atleast in the first day the shock value.

Yep. However it was transmitted, airborne or water in the TWD world. The living human race is extinct in about (or less than) two generations.
If it were spread by bites alone, it could have been halted.

[adam]

YES, it's realistic. Look at cloud-nine, nobody knows where it was coming from and I can imagine that some governments already work on a virus FOR AGES. Why not? Would be the perfect weapon in war. Infect the country and they'll kill themself.

@ the weapon-topic:
Sorry Americans, you're not alone on earth. From a european standpoint, carrying weapons in your home isn't the usual thing to do. Guess most people in Germany, France, Spain and so on would be forced using melee weapons, because it's just not normal over here if you got a gun at home. So I think most europeans would be screwed.

[BigEd]

adam, on 30 June 2012 - 02:44 PM, said:

YES, it's realistic. Look at cloud-nine, nobody knows where it was coming from and I can imagine that some governments already work on a virus FOR AGES. Why not? Would be the perfect weapon in war. Infect the country and they'll kill themself.

I think just the opposite, why would they?

The very people attempting to develop such a weapon is unlikely. Extremely educated intelligent indivuals who have spent many years at school. Not having a conscience about developing a bug that could destroy all life on earth (including their own and their loved ones) if it jumps?
Research has evolved from "If they could." to "If they should.". Read about Robert Oppenheimer.

The biggest axe is elected officials. Governments with newly elected leadership would have final say funding such research. Continuing such deadly research from previous administrations knowing fully what consequences would be if the bug jumps makes it seem even more unlikely.

Edited by BigEd, 01 July 2012 - 01:09 AM.

[adam]

BigEd, on 01 July 2012 - 01:08 AM, said:

I think just the opposite, why would they?

The very people attempting to develop such a weapon is unlikely. Extremely educated intelligent indivuals who have spent many years at school. Not having a conscience about developing a bug that could destroy all life on earth (including their own and their loved ones) if it jumps?
Research has evolved from "If they could." to "If they should.". Read about Robert Oppenheimer.

The biggest axe is elected officials. Governments with newly elected leadership would have final say funding such research. Continuing such deadly research from previous administrations knowing fully what consequences would be if the bug jumps makes it seem even more unlikely.

This might be right. I just can imagine it, because the media and Government in general has never been honest, doesn't matter which country you wanna look at. Until this day there are so many unknown murders and stuff happening like Osama Bin Laden getting reportedly killed and then there are a dozen statements which are contradictory, a fake-picture of his corpse on the internet and so on, I could get you like 10 more examples, just think about health: Propaganda for ages which made us believe that milk of a cow would be necessary and healthy, although it's quite the opposite for human beings.

While we are able to travel Space we still die from deseases of civilization, because money counts and nothing else, media is hiding the truth behind A LOT of unhealthy things we shouldn't eat. (pay 1$ for a burger or 4$ for a salad ... What the fuck? ) It's always the same, if there's someone wanting shit like such a virus and he can afford it, there will be intelligent people to do so.

I know that there are some fucked up humans around, just do your research about stuff happening every day you don't see in daily television news because it's too violent to broadcast, I mean what really happens without any censorship. War is a term, crime is a term, murder is a term. If you see how it really looks, that's the point when you understand how fucked up people can be. (documentingreality, 100% mindfuck, DO NOT go there if you are even scared of horror-movies.)

[Sweetsister]

I say never say never, so yes anything is possible. I agree that te govt. and media does not give us the whole truth. The only good thing about that is if the poloticians have some "plan" to surrvive something like this in shelters, when its over all they got for company is each other...good luck (sarcasm)

One thing Ive noticed and I'm not sure why its so prevelant now is why so many young people have food alergies mainly peanut butter. Its gotten to a point where kids cant even bring it for luch. When I was a kid I only remembe a girl with an alergy to strawberries. What is happening to young peoples immune systems? It seems that people are "over sanitizing" so the young dont have any antibodies to fight off some illneses. Is it the media scaring everyone having them wash their hands 50 times a day, large companies who want to sell sanitizers and wipes?...

[BigEd]

adam, on 02 July 2012 - 04:15 AM, said:

This might be right. I just can imagine it, because the media and Government in general has never been honest, doesn't matter which country you wanna look at. Until this day there are so many unknown murders and stuff happening like Osama Bin Laden getting reportedly killed and then there are a dozen statements which are contradictory, a fake-picture of his corpse on the internet and so on, I could get you like 10 more examples, just think about health: Propaganda for ages which made us believe that milk of a cow would be necessary and healthy, although it's quite the opposite for human beings.

I agree with you on politicians being "honest". When it comes to politics there is a forever a game being played. One side wants to know what the other is doing or up to. Manipulating the other side by using their own pawns, other political pawns, or making the other sides pawns look bad, is just part of the game which has evolved. The seedy manipulation in the wake of some of the bigger games leads to traject consequences which are usually silenced. Keeping them quiet is all part of the game.

adam, on 02 July 2012 - 04:15 AM, said:

While we are able to travel Space we still die from deseases of civilization, because money counts and nothing else, media is hiding the truth behind A LOT of unhealthy things we shouldn't eat. (pay 1$ for a burger or 4$ for a salad ... What the fuck? )

Actually cost of a burger is even cheaper. Slaughter house cows are $80, Feeder bulls/steers are average $180, Feeder heifers $160 in my neck of the woods. The price per lb goes up a to pay the transport and processing fees. Beef can be frozen and stores well. I can get 1/2 cow for around $500-$600, paying around $2.00 per lbs.
Salad vegetables are seasonable and localized, depending on the season and how close the price in low. If they are hot house grown, or shipped, the price goes up because they are delicate and perishable. I get alot of summer veggies from our garden. Before that we bought a farm share and pickup $50 of veggies for around $5-$10 a week from a local farm in the summer.

Mcdonalds never acknowledged any changes to their menu after "Super Size Me" by Morgan Spurlock. But if you watch the movie, the portion sizes during the movie were huge! Goto a Mcdonalds now and the sizes are 1/3 of what they were.

adam, on 02 July 2012 - 04:15 AM, said:

It's always the same, if there's someone wanting shit like such a virus and he can afford it, there will be intelligent people to do so.

There will always be rogue individuals with nefarious intentions.

However IMO developing such a bug would take dozens of scientists, in a well funded facility, with high security, and maintenance personnel. Too many people would know. Conscience and morality of highly educated individuals goes up as the risk of their research increases they just aren't stupid. Somebody would talk.

The paper trail, raw materials, goods and services flowing into a facility would also be under the watchful eye in the sky. A "fascade" front end might be able to cover up the billion dollar money pit by producing a marketable product. But again, there would be too many people involved, people talk.

adam, on 02 July 2012 - 04:15 AM, said:

I know that there are some fucked up humans around, just do your research about stuff happening every day you don't see in daily television news because it's too violent to broadcast, I mean what really happens without any censorship. War is a term, crime is a term, murder is a term. If you see how it really looks, that's the point when you understand how fucked up people can be. (documentingreality, 100% mindfuck, DO NOT go there if you are even scared of horror-movies.)

I agree with you, the world is not a good place. But the scale involved with developing a biological weapon to wipe out all the human beings on earth seems very unlikely.

Possible, yes. Probable, No.
I put the odds of a zombie outbreak at .0000000001%.

[Jamber]

doesn't even have to be a "biological" weapon, could be sometime in the future, some billionaire, wanting to prolong his own life, funding some sort of "immortality" project, i can see something come out of that, it would be dealing with death and the halting of it and even the regeneration of dead tissue

and as for the ZA scenario in this world, could it be halted? i don't really thinks so

1. The military is vastly outnumbered by the civilian population
    1a. It'll take a few days before units are even sent into cities, by then infection will be out of control and spreading to other areas
  by the wounded, creating even more hot zones
    2b. Military units won't be going into cities in overwhelming numbers, 20 thousand troops into NYC, ain't gonna make much of
  difference - they will be going to other places as well and remember for the states, there's what ONLY 2 mill troops? and not
  even all of that can be put into action, alot are overseas and alot are in a branch that won't be of any use, those on
  ships/submerines

2. Not everyone that has a gun, is disciplined enough to make much of a difference, won't be like the WD where everyone does
    headshots on everyshot .. i think the reg people would be more likely to panic and try and get the hell out of there, creating more
    zombies as they get killed in even more #'s and spreading the infection even more as the wounded go other places

3. At some point, there will be mass desertions in the surviving military/police units, only human to when things get bad, they start
    thinking of their families - at some point on the "front lines" wherever that may be, i would deff start thinking of back home and if
    they're even still alive (dawn of the dead remake, the cop, i thought was on point-he was no longer a cop, he was a guy trying to
    get back to family)

Now just my own theory of events of what would happen here/now if one ZA occured, would we all die? civilization end? i don't think so, we're a resiliant bunch but majority of a countrie's population would be wiped out, fact is most people do live in the cities and they're pretty much deathtraps in a ZA scenario and it would be more luck then skill that dictates you getting out of there alive, roads would crowded, with people/dead/cars so your not gonna be driving out, have to go out on foot

*my belief 1st few hrs of a freshly risen Z would be that it moves quickly perhaps even running, not until rigor mortis sets in before they become the slow walking type* ... the dead now in this world, don't get all stiff right away, so that would allow them to move more quickly at least just for a bit*

my theory

[kombat]

The main difference in TWD universe, at least on the tv show, is they knew nothing of zombies beforehand. It didn't exist in their pop culture. That gives us the advantage. It would also have to be like you become one when you die whether you were bit or not.

Governments would be slow to respond, and given the mass hysteria that would break out, I absolutely believe that it could happen as depicted. If it was merely transmitted by bite the possibility is much, much less. 1/3 or 1/2 the population would be zombified before the military even got deployed.

The military would not win. There are 315 million people in the US. 750,000 in the Army and Marine Corps, with a good number of them probably leaving to take care of their families. 150,000 people die every die in the world most of them not by gunshot to the head. That's a lot of new zombies every day, plus the ones they kill. It's exponential. Before you know it whatever is left of the military is overrun.

Edited by kombat, 19 October 2012 - 02:13 PM.

[scarylala]

i think it could but it would have to happen fast and in various locations so that no one could organise things quickly enough to stop it or contain it at least, plus it would have to happen on a global scale and not just in America because other countries would send aid right away to stop the threat and if that didnt work then they would cut america off & everywhere else would be safe. Although i do wonder if if was an accident, naturtal occurance or if it was a terrorist attack that went really wrong

[snowman]

Back to the tank thing. Yea it's armored and made if steel but its only as good as the amount of fuel In it. And if you run outta gas your stuck in a box and will probably die in the box.  Especially if you have a wounded soldier if some kind, when he turns where ya gonna go?

There is no safe place In the ZA. Only safer places.